>> HELLO EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR & COMPANY.

HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP.

>> WE HAVE LOST OUR TRUST TO THE UNITED STATES AS A NEGOTIATING PARTNER.

>> IS IRAN ON THE CUSP OF THE DEAL WITH THE U. S. ?

OR WILL WASHINGTON STRIKE TEH RAN AS THE SUPREME LEADER WARNS OF WAR IF THERE IS AN ATTACK.

THE LEADER JOINS ME .

> >> YOU ON THE BRINK.

TRIP TRUMP THREATENS ITS ECONOMY WITH AN OIL BLOCKADE.

HOW IT IS AFFECTING ORDINARY CUBANS AND ANALYSIS FROM AN EXPERT .

>> THEY BUILT A VERY SUSTAINABLE AND VARIED DURABLE MOVEMENT THAT WILL FRANKLY OUT RUCH LAST TRUMP.

>> WHAT MAGA CAN TEACH DEMOCRATS.

WHAT OUR REPORTER TELLS MICHELLE MARTIN .

> >> AMANPOUR & COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE BY ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI-SEMITISM, THE STRAUSS FAMILY FOUNDATION , THE PETER PETERSON AND JOAN COONEY , CHARLES ROSENBLUM, MONIQUE WARSHAW, PATRICIA EWAN CONTRIBUTING TO DIFFERENCES IN THE COMMUNITIES.

BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG AND CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU .

>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM EVERYONE .

I'M IN NEW YORK SITTING IN FOR CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR.

WILL THE U. S. STRIKE IRAN OR MAKE A DEAL?

THAT IS THE KEY QUESTION AS THE U. S. CONTINUES TO BUILD UP ITS MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE REGION.

DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS ARE ALSO RAMPING UP WITH SENIOR IRANIANS AND U. S. OFFICIALS POTENTIALLY MEETING IN THE COMING DAYS.

THIS AFTER SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI'S WARNING THAT IF AMERICA ATTACKS, IT COULD SPARK A REGIONAL WAR.

HERE IS WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID IN RESPONSE TO THAT .

>> WE HAVE THE MOST POWERFUL SHIPS IN THE WORLD OVER THERE.

IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HOPE WE WILL MAKE A DEAL.

IF WE DON'T MAKE A DEAL, WE WILL FIND OUT WHETHER OR NOT HE WAS RIGHT.

>> THE IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER WROTE ON TELEGRAM, " TEHRAN IS READY FOR DIPLOMACY BUT IRAN IS FOCUSED ON TALKS ON THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM WHILE WASHINGTON IS FOCUSED ON BALLISTIC MISSILES.

CAN A DEAL EVEN BE REACHED?

.

WE SET DOWN WITH THE FOREIGN MINISTER IN TEHRAN TO UNDERSTAND IRAN'S EXPECTATIONS TO THE U. S. AND GET HIS REACTION TO THE PROSPECT OF A CONFLICT .

>> I'M NOT CONCERNED ABOUT WAR.

WHAT I'M CONCERNED OF IS MISCALCULATIONS.

AND I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP IS WISE ENOUGH TO MAKE A CORRECT DECISION.

>> HOW CAN A MEANINGFUL NEGOTIATIONS PROCESS BE JUMPSTARTED RIGHT NOW?

>> WE HAVE LOST OUR TRUST TO THE UNITED STATES AS A NEGOTIATING PARTNER .

THERE ARE NOW SOME INTEREST, SOME FRIENDLY COUNTRIES IN ASIA THAT ARE TRYING TO BUILD THESE COMMITMENTS.

I SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER TALK , IF THE U. S. NEGOTIATION TEAM FOLLOWS WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID .

FAIR AND EQUITABLE DEAL TO ENSURE THAT THERE IS NO NUCLEAR DEFENSE .

>> SO IF THIS CONFIDENCE IS BUILT, YOU ARE READY AND WILLING TO SIT DOWN DIRECTLY WITH THE AMERICAN SIDE ?

>> THE QUESTION OF DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY IS SOMETHING ELSE.

THAT IS THE FORM OF NEGOTIATION.

YOU HAVE -- >> THEY SAY THEY WANT THIS.

>> YES.

BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF THE SUBSTANCE OF NEGOTIATION AND THAT IS MORE IMPORTANT.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE ALREADY GOING ON.

WOULD YOU SAY THE TALKS GOING ON RIGHT NOW ARE FRUITFUL?

>> SO FAR, YES.

THINGS LIKE BALLISTIC MISSILES.

THINGS LIKE PROXY FORCES IN THE REGION .

IS THAT SOMETHING OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR YOU OR IS THAT SOMETHING YOU CAN TALK ABOUT?

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID NO NUCLEAR DEFENSE.

AND WE FULLY AGREE.

WE FULLY AGREE WITH THAT.

THAT COULD BE A REALLY GOOD DEAL.

OF COURSE AND RETURN, WE EXPECT SANCTION LIFTING.

THAT DEAL IS A POSSIBILITY.

LET'S NOT TALK ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE THINGS.

>> LET'S -- WHAT DO YOU THINK THE CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE IF THERE WAS A FULL ON MILITARY CONFRONTATION BETWEEN IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES?

>> IF WAR STARTS, THAT WOULD BE A DISASTER.

IN THE PREVIOUS WAR, WE TRIED HARD TO LIMIT THE SCOPE OF WAR BETWEEN IRAN AND ISRAEL.

THIS TIME, IF IT IS BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U. S. , SINCE THE U. S. BASES ARE SPREAD ALL OVER THE REGION , THEN YOU NEVER TYPICALLY --MANY PARTS OF THE REGION WOULD BE INVOLVED , ENGAGED.

AND THAT COULD BE VERY DANGEROUS.

BEING PREPARED DOES NOT MEAN WE WANT WAR.

IT MEANS WE WANT TO PREVENT A WAR.

>> MEANWHILE, THE BRUTAL CRACKDOWN THAT KILLED THOUSANDS OF PROTESTERS LAST MONTH APPEARS TO BE ALMOST FORGOTTEN.

LET'S GET INTO ALL OF THIS NOW .

AND AUSTRIAN AND AUTHOR OF A PHENOMENAL BOOK I'M ALMOST FINISHED READING NOW IS JOINING ME NOW FROM CALIFORNIA.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

I MENTIONED IN THE INTRODUCTION THAT THE MURDER OF THOUSANDS OF PROTESTERS IS ALL BUT FORGOTTEN.

I KNOW THAT IS NOT THE CASE WITH PEOPLE LIKE YOU , WITH SO MANY OF THE IRANIANS WHO HAVE FLED THE COUNTRY , WHO ARE LIVING ABROAD AND FOR SO MANY OF THE IRANIANS THAT REMAIN IN IRAN RIGHT NOW WATCHING THINGS UNFOLD .

ON THE ONE HAND, YOU HAVE A MASSIVE SHOW OF FORCE AS WE HAVE REPORTED.

THE PRESIDENT EVEN CALLING IT A MASSIVE ARMADA READY FOR ACTION.

ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU HAVE EFFORTS BEING MADE FOR CONTINUED DIPLOMACY AND TALKS AND HEADING TO THE REGION NOW.

PERHAPS EVEN FURTHER TALKS WITH OTHER U. S. OFFICIALS AND IRANIAN OFFICIALS LATER THIS WEEK .

HOW ARE YOU INTERPRETING THIS?

IS THIS WASHINGTON LOOKING TO PREVENT MILITARY STRIKES?

OR JUST DAYS AWAY ?

>> I HAVE A HARD TIME UNDERSTANDING WHAT HE IS TRYING TO DO.

IF YOU CAREFULLY LISTEN TO -- THEY JUST TOLD YOUR INTERVIEWER, THIS IS A DISCUSSION THAT IS ABSOLUTELY DESTINED TO FAIL.

THE MINIMUM CONDITIONS THE U. S. HAS SET ARE THREE.

BASICALLY SAID THEY WON'T ACCEPT ANY OF THEM.

THE MINIMUM CONDITIONS, THE FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER HAS SAID, ARE EVEN MORE .

HE SAYS, HUMAN RIGHTS.

THE DEATH OF THESE PEOPLE.

TENS OF THOUSANDS THAT ARE IN PRISON MUST BE ON THE TABLE.

AND ACTUALLY SAYS, WE CAN GUARANTEE WE WON'T BUILD A BOMB.

THEY HAVE GUARANTEED THEY WON'T BUILD A BOMB FOR 35 YEARS AND THEY HAVE LIGHT.

THEY, THREE DAYS AGO, WENT ON TELEVISION AND SAID, WE CAN BUILD A BOMB OVERNIGHT IF WE WANT TO.

SO I DON'T UNDERSTAND THE LOGIC OF THIS MEETING .

MAYBE ONLY AS YOU SAID , TRYING TO REPAIR A PLACE, ARMY AND PLACE.

TO THE PEOPLE OF IRAN WHO HAVE SUFFERED MORE MOSTLY --ENORMOUSLY, GIVING THIS REGIME ANOTHER CHANCE IS BUTCHERING THE TRUST THEY HAVE PUT IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO STAND FOR THEM.

PEOPLE DID NOT GO TO THEIR DEATH SO THAT THE U. S. CAN GET A BETTER DEAL.

PEOPLE WENT TO THEIR DEATH AND ARE STILL FIGHTING IN ORDER FOR A DEMOCRATIC IRAN.

WITHOUT A DEMOCRATIC IRAN, THIS REGIME WILL MAKE ANOTHER DEAL AND WILL CHEAT, AS THEY HAVE, ON EVERY DEAL THEY HAVE MADE OVER THE LAST 35 YEARS , INCLUDING NUCLEAR DEALS .

>> ON THE NUCLEAR FRONT, IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW PRESIDENT TRUMP USED IT AS A VICTORY THAT HE WALKS AWAY WITH, EVEN IF IRAN AGREES TO ONCE AND FOR ALL END THE NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT PROGRAM.

BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT JUST DESCRIBED THE SAME PROGRAM AS COMPLETELY OBLITERATED .

JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO, FOLLOWING THE STRIKES BY THE UNITED STATES.

SO THAT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE PRESIDENT TO VIEW AS SOMETHING THAT HE WALKED AWAY WITH , NOT HAVING TO GO TO WAR OR STRIKE IRAN AGAIN.

BUT TO YOUR POINT, ABOUT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE NOT TAKING TO THE STREETS BECAUSE OF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM, WHAT IS IT IN YOUR VIEW THAT THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW , EVEN IN TERMS OF THE LANGUAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT ON DOWN ?

AND THEN YOUR THOUGHTS ON WHETHER YOU THINK A STRIKE IS AN APPROPRIATE RESPONSE .

>> I THINK WHAT THE UNITED STATES AND THE NATIONAL COMMISSION SHOULD DO RIGHT NOW IS STILL THE IRANIAN REGIME, THAT THIS WILL NOT STAND.

YOU CANNOT KILL THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE , ARREST TENS OF THOUSANDS AND THINK IT IS NORMAL.

MR.

[ INAUDIBLE ] WENT ON TELEVISION THE OTHER DAY AND CLAIMED THESE PEOPLE THAT WANT TO THE STREETS, THESE TENS OF THOUSANDS THAT WENT TO THE STREETS, SOME WOULD SAY SEVERAL MILLION , WERE PART OF THIS AND I. C. E. IS PART OF THIS.

THE PRESIDENT SAYS IT IS WITH INNOCENT RAINING PEOPLE THAT SHOULD MAKE PEACE WITH THEM.

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD TELL HOMINY THAT THIS IS NOT A COUP BUT A MASSIVE RESISTANCE AGAINST CORRUPT, AND COMPETENT --AND COMPETENT REGIME.

THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING.

PEOPLE ARE SUFFERING.

THAT IS WHAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD TELL IN THIS REGIME.

I SUGGEST MR.

JOHN WYCOFF READ SOME OF THIS MATERIAL THAT HAS BEEN PUT ON HOMINY'S WEBSITE IN THE LAST 48 HOURS.

I READ THOSE.

IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT THEY THINK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GIVE UP IN ANY OF THOSE THINGS.

AND THE IDEA THAT THEY WILL GIVE UP THE BOMB IS REPEATING A LIE THAT THEY HAVE BEEN TELLING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR 40 YEARS .

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD BUILD ITS EFFORT TOWARD MAKING A DEMOCRATIC IRAN.

NOT BY A MILITARY ATTACK.

THE PEOPLE OF IRAN WANT TO HAVE DEMOCRACY.

HELP THEM.

MAKE THEM FEEL MORE EQUAL INSTEAD OF PUTTING -- TO THE MURDEROUS REGIME, I SAY TO GO TO THE WEBSITE.

THEY SAY, WE WON THE 12 DAY WAR AND WE WILL WIN THIS ONE AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO GIVE UP ANY OF THESE.

WE WON'T GIVE UP PROXY.

WE WON'T GIVE UP ENRICHMENT .

AND SO WHAT ARE YOU NEGOTIATING FOR .

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP PUBLICLY PUT DOWN A RED LINE AND TRANSACTING BULLDOZED HIS WAY OVER IT WEEKS AGO TO .

THAT WAS JANUARY 3rd, WHEN THE PRESIDENT SAID THERE WOULD BE A RESPONSE IF MORE CIVILIANS WERE KILLED.

THE SUPREME LEADER ALL BUT IGNORED THAT AND CONTINUE TO MOW DOWN HIS OWN PEOPLE .

IN TERMS OF WHAT A DEMOCRACY THE DAY AFTER COULD LOOK LIKE, I WANT TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS ON WHAT WAS WRITTEN IN THE ECONOMIST BY A DISSIDENT .

HE SAYS THAT THE KEY IS DISMANTLING THE ISLAMICIST AND AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI HIMSELF RIGHT NOW AND THE SOLUTION OF WHAT TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE IN TOPPLING AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI WOULD BE SOMETHING HE DESCRIBED AS A COALITION FROM UNITING THE CROWN PRINCE ALSO LIVING ABROAD HERE IN THE UNITED STATES WITH THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER TO PUSH A REFERENDUM FORWARD FOR A NEW CONSTITUTION.

HE SAYS THAT WOULD GIVE THEM MORE LEGITIMACY WITH THE IRANIAN PEOPLE .

IS THAT, DO YOU THINK, A PLAUSIBLE BRIDGE OR IS IT FANTASY?

>> THE WAY HE IS ARTICULATING IT, I THINK IT IS A FANTASY.

THE IDEA HAS BEEN AROUND FOR SEVERAL YEARS.

MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ARGUING THAT --WHAT CAN DISLODGE THE REGIME IS WHAT IS HISTORICALLY CALLED A PACKED TRANSITION.

SOMETHING THAT HAPPENED IN SOUTH AFRICA.

SOMETHING THAT HAPPENED IN POLAND.

SOMETHING THAT HAPPENED IN CH ILE WHERE SOME IN THE REGIME COULD REALIZE THE GAME IS UP.

THEY CAN'T CONTINUE.

AND THEY TOGETHER FIND A PATH FORWARD TOWARD DEMOCRACY.

I THINK THAT IS AN IDEA.

BUT RIGHT NOW, I THINK THE SITUATION HAS BECOME RADICALIZED BY MR.

HOMINY'S KILLING OF THOUSANDS.

PART OF WHY HE WENT TO THIS EXTREME ACTION AND WHY HE KILLED SO MANY PEOPLE AND SO BRUTALLY AND SO BRAZENLY IS PRECISELY TO MAKE THAT IMPOSSIBLE.

HE WANTS TO RADICALIZE.

HE WANTS TO POLARIZE.

AND THIS ISSUED A VERY BRAVE ANNOUNCEMENT, SAYING HE IS WILLING TO SUPPORT THE REFERENDUM.

BASICALLY SAYING THAT HOMINY HAS TO BE STOPPED.

AND BASICALLY SAYING SOMETHING EVEN MORE IMPORTANT.

HE ASKED THE IRANIAN MILITARY TO PUT DOWN THEIR GUNS AND NOT KILL THE PEOPLE.

BUT THEN HE SAID , WE WANT TO GO BACK TO AN ISLAMIC STATE AND THAT HAS CAUSED THOUSANDS TO GO ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND SEE HOW THEY HAVE ATTACKED THIS GUY WHO HAS BEEN IN PRISON FOR 14 YEARS NOW.

EVEN IN THE ISLAMIC STATE.

THAT IS HOW ANGRY PEOPLE ARE IN THIS REGIME.

ANYTHING THAT EVEN SMELLS OF THAT REGIME.

BUT THAT IDEA , THE IDEA OF THE TRANSITION BACK CONNECTS IRANIAN --MORE THAN EVER UNITED AROUND THE RESULT AND THE OPPOSITION AND IRAN.

PEOPLE LIKE THIS, THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE WHO HAVE FOUGHT THIS REGIME FOR 40 YEARS.

EVERYBODY HAS TO COME TOGETHER AND I THINK , GET RID OF THIS REGIME , WHICH WILL THEN, AND ONLY THEN , SOLVE THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM.

THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM HAS ONE SOLUTION.

IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROBLEM HAS ONE SOLUTION.

A DEMOCRATIC ANSWER.

NOTHING ELSE.

>> TO YOUR POINT ABOUT THE GOAL HERE FROM HOMINY TO SORT OF RADICALIZE PEOPLE, THAT IS SOMETHING ALREADY BEING DESCRIBED AS POTENTIALLY THE GROUND WORKS FOR A CIVIL WAR IN THE COUNTRY.

I WOULD LIKE TO READ FROM THE REPORTING FROM THE ECONOMIST AND THEIR TAKE ON THIS.

THEY WRITE, THE MAYHEM THAT FOLLOWED THE WESTERN TOPPLING OF TYRANTS IN IRAQ AND LIBYA OFFERS A CAUTIONARY TALE.

NOTICE THE EXIT , LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO SATISFY THE REGIME'S OPPONENTS.

HE WANTS THE EDIFICE TO FALL WITH HIM.

MEANWHILE, IRAN'S RULERS HAVE SEEN THE CONSEQUENCES OF EVISCERATING THE RULING.

THIS HAPPENED IN IRAQ AFTER SADDAM HUSSEIN CAP 'S OVERFLOW AND 2000 .

AND IRAN TO PASS.

EXPECT THEM TO FIGHT TO PICK THEIR POWER AND ASSETS.

EITHER WAY, CHAOS ILLUMES.

IRAN IS NOT LIBYA.

IRAN IS NOT IRAQ.

YOU SURE THOSE CONCERNS?

>> I SURE THE CONCERNS.

BUT IRAN IS NOT LIBYA AND IRAN IS NOT IRAN IRAQ.

IRAN IS A COUNTRY THAT HAS FOUGHT FOR 150 YEARS FOR DEMOCRACY.

IRAN, AS WE SPEAK, IS ONE OF THE MOST REMARKABLE MOVEMENTS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.

IRAN HAS A CIVIL SOCIETY .

AND IRAN IS INTERNET SAVVY.

IRAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISCOURSE OF -- INSIDE IRAN AND OUTSIDE IRAN, THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT WANT TO CONTINUE THIS BLOODSHED.

THAT WANT TO KILL , TALK ABOUT KILLING EVERY MOTHER AND EVERY COMMANDER.

THAT IS NOT GOING TO GET US TO THE DEMOCRATIC DEMOCRACY.

WE HAVE TO CHANGE THEIR IDEAS.

CHANGE THEIR SIDE.

JOIN PEOPLE TO GET RID OF THIS CURSE THAT IS CALLED THE RULE OF THE CLERGY .

>> OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS TO COME INTERNALLY .

IT IS PRETTY CLEAR AT THIS POINT IN THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID AS MUCH, THAT THE U. S. WILL RESPOND IF THESE ATROCITIES CONTINUE, WHICH THEY DID, AGAINST THE IRANIAN PEOPLE AND THE THREAT OF IRAN REMAINS PERNICIOUS TO ITS NEIGHBORS ON THE WORLD.

WHAT IS THE BEST THING THAT THE UNITED STATES CAN DO RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF EFFECTIVELY AIDING IRANIANS TO THE DEMOCRACY THAT YOU SPEAK OF ?

>> AGAIN, AS I HAVE SAID, EVEN IN YOUR PROGRAM BEFORE, I THINK RIGHT NOW, YOU NEED TO EQUALIZE THE PLAYING FIELD.

AND WE HAVE TO STOP IT.

WE HAVE TO GIVE PEOPLE ACCESS TO THE NOT.

THIS REGIME HAS CREATED LITERALLY, A SOCIAL MEDIA IRON WALL AROUND IRAN.

THE INTERNET IS SHUT DOWN.

ASSETS OF THIS REGIME, THE OLIGARCHS CONNECTED TO THIS REGIME HAVE TO BE ROSEN.

MORE THAN ANY ATTACK.

IT WILL GIVE THE PEOPLE OF IRAN HOPE.

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITIES HELP.

>> FINAL QUESTION QUICKLY.

WHEN HOMINY SAYS AN ATTACK ON IRAN WOULD TRIGGER REGIONAL WAR, IF THIS IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT FOR HIM AND HIS REGIME, IS THAT A BLUFF?

OR IS THAT DUMB THING YOU THINK SHOULD BE CAUTIONED BY THE UNITED STATES ?

AND WHAT DOES A REGIONAL WAR LOOK LIKE?

>> I THINK IT SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

BECAUSE IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT.

AND IT IS THE KIND OF MURDEROUS RULER WHO IS WILLING TO DESTROY THE COUNTRY, KILL THOUSANDS MORE, --PRONOUNCED THE POWER.

THE MILITARY HAS RESPONSE ABILITIES FOR THAT.

THIS REGIME IS FAR MORE DIMINISHED NOW THAN IT WAS TWO YEARS AGO WHEN IT WAS MAKING THESE THREATS .

THE THREAT HAS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

BUT IT -- MUST ALSO BE AWARE AND I THINK THAT IS EVIDENT WITH WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SUGGESTED.

THAT OF COURSE HE WILL MAKE THREATS.

OF COURSE IF YOU ARE MAKING THREATS AND YOU ARE A BULLY, AND THIS REGIME IS, YOU ARE GOING TO MAKE THREATS TO MAKE PEOPLE AFRAID OF ATTACKING.

THEY SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT THIS.

BUT THEY SHOULD BE WORRIED THAT THIS IS A MUCH, MUCH MORE DIMINISHED REGION THAN IT WAS BEFORE.

>> GIVEN IRAN'S LONG HISTORY , IT IS RELATIVELY YOUNG.

46, 47 YEARS OLD , ALL THIS CAN BE FOUND, MORE DETAILED IN YOUR PHENOMENAL BOOK, WHICH I HIGHLY RECOMMEND.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US .

>> IT WAS A PLEASURE.

THANK YOU.

> >> AND VENEZUELA, ONE MONTH AFTER THE CAPTURE OF NICHOLAS MADERO AND HIS WIFE, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SENSE OF STABILITY AS UNITED STATES ASSERTS ITS PRESENCE AND POWER.

THE GOVERNMENT HAS APPROVED A NEW LAW ENABLING EASIER FOREIGN INVESTMENTS INTO THE COUNTRY'S OIL RESERVE.

MEANWHILE, TRUMP IS TRYING TO CUT OFF CUBA FROM THE LIFELINE THREATENING TARIFFS ON ANY COUNTRY SUPPLYING THE CRUCIAL RESOURCE.

CUBA'S GOVERNMENT DECLARED AN INTERNATIONAL EMERGENCY.

WITHOUT OIL, HUMANS FACE VERY HARSH LIVING CONDITIONS.

WE HAVE THE REPORT FROM HAVANA.

>> THE U. S. ATTACK ON VENEZUELA TO CAPTURE NICOLÁS MADURO, OVER 100 PEOPLE WERE KILLED .

AMONG THEM, 32 CUBAN SOLDIERS INCLUDING NICOLÁS MADURO'S CLOSEST BODYGUARDS , OPERATING THERE IN SECRET.

NOW CUBA'S CLOSEST ALLY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, HIS BIGGEST OIL SUPPLIER, APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE FECTEAU AMERICAN CONTROL.

THIS IS SENDING A CHILL THROUGH CUBAN SOCIETY ON WHAT MIGHT BE NEXT.

>> CUBA IS A NATION CLOSE TO FAILURE.

>> IT IS A PRODUCTION MANY U. S. PRESIDENTS HAVE MADE .

THE REVOLUTION FUNDED BY FIDEL CASTRO HAS ENDURED.

I HAVE BEEN A FOREIGN COURSE ON IT IN CUBA FOR 14 YEARS, A COUNTRY THAT SUDDENLY FEELS VERY DIFFERENT TO ME.

AND I WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT THE OPERATION IS FOR THE FUTURE OF 9 MILLION CUBANS WHO LIVE IN THIS ISLAND NATION.

>> THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT RECEIVED THE REMAINS OF THEIR FALLEN SOLDIERS FROM VENEZUELA WITH A HERO'S WELCOME AFTER DECADES OF DENIAL.

THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE LINED THE STREETS THAT DAY AND WAITED HOURS TO PAY THEIR RESPECTS.

>> THIS DIRECT CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE U. S. AND CUBAN SOLDIERS, THAT IS NOT SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN FOR DECADES.

IT HAS LEFT MANY PEOPLE HERE WONDERING ABOUT THE LOSS OF THEIR ALLY IN VENEZUELA, HOW THAT WILL IMPACT THEM.

>> OUTSIDE IN A LINE, I WILL MEET ILIANA MEDRANO.

>> WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THERE WAS AN INVASION OF CUBA BY U. S. TROOPS ?

>> CUBANS ARE NO STRANGERS TO ECONOMIC HARDSHIP .

SENSE OF FIDEL CASTRO'S 1959 REVOLUTION, THEY HAVE WEATHERED AMERICA'S EMBARGO AND THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT'S DISASTROUS ECONOMIC MISSTEPS.

AFTER THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED, THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED IN VENEZUELA EMERGED AS A LIFELINE.

HERE IS HOW THE AGREEMENT WORKED.

CUBA SENT THOUSANDS OF DOCTORS, TEACHERS, SPORTS TRAINERS AS WELL AS MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS TO VENEZUELA IN RETURN FOR OIL.

NOW WITH NICOLÁS MADURO IN JAIL AND OUT OF THE PICTURE, IT IS NOT CLEAR IF VENEZUELA CAN OR WILL CONTINUE THE OIL SHIPMENTS THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS VOWED TO BLOCK.

>> TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, HAVANA'S SECOND LARGEST OIL SUPPLIER, MEXICO, HAS ALSO REPORTEDLY SUSPENDED OIL SHIPMENTS.

ALREADY, WE ARE WITNESSING THE IMPACTS .

IT CAN TAKE WEEKS TO GET A SPOT IN THE GAS LINE USING ONLINE SYSTEM .

FOR ARO TELLS ME HE HAS WAITED 29 DAYS.

>> AS NIGHT FALLS HERE, MANY WILL BE LEFT IN THE DARK.

AND SO LONGER AND LONGER BLACKOUTS ARE BECOMING THE NEW NORMAL.

IN MANY PARTS OF THE ISLAND, POWER IS OFF MORE HOURS A DAY THAN IT IS ON.

SOME PEOPLE TELL US THEY ARE FED UP BUT THEY ARE TOO SCARED TO SPEAK TO US ON CAMERA .

OTHERS LIKE THIS MAN WHO SELLS COCONUT SWEETS ON THE STREET, SAY THEY ARE RESIGNED TO WORSENING OUR SITUATION.

>> THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BOUGHS OF THE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CUBA.

FOR NOW, THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT IS DEFIANT, CALLING FOR ONE OF THE LARGEST DEMONSTRATIONS OUTSIDE THE U. S. EMBASSY IN HAVANA IN YEARS.

EVEN SOME OF THE YOUNGER PEOPLE IN THE CROWD , SAY THEY FEEL THE MOOD IN THEIR COUNTRY HAS CHANGED.

>> WHEN YOU SAW BOMBS FALLING ON CARACAS, HOW DID THAT PERSONALLY MAKE YOU FEEL?

>> IN THE 21st CENTURY, SEEING THIS KIND OF ACTION VIOLATING TOTALLY THE INTERNATIONAL LAW , ACTING UNILATERALLY, THAT IS SOMETHING VERY WORRISOME.

>> FOR THOSE OF US THAT COVER THE NORMALIZATION OF DIPLOMATIC TIES BETWEEN THE U. S. AND CUBA UNDER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, THERE IS A SENSE OF WHIPLASH .

>> I EVEN HEARD FROM THE U. S. EMBASSY SOURCE THAT DIPLOMATS THERE HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO QUOTE HAVE THEIR BAGS PACKED, AS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION EXPLORES NEW WAYS TO STABILIZE THE COMMUNIST RUN GOVERNMENT .

>> PATRICK ALTMAN REPORTING THERE.

WHEN CONTACTED FOR COMMENT, THE U. S. STATE DEPARTMENT SAID IT WOULD NOT COMMENT ON INTERNAL MEETINGS BUT THAT THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY EMBASSY DRAWDOWN IN HAVANA .

>> LET'S GET MORE ON THIS NOW.

WE HAVE AN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AND CHAIR OF CUBAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI AND JOINING ME NOW FROM MIAMI.

MICHAEL, IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU .

THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A REGION , A COUNTRY THAT YOU HAVE COVERED WELL , FOR YEARS NOW.

YOU ARE STILL TALKING TO SOURCES THERE IN CUBA.

OBVIOUSLY A LARGE CUBAN POPULATION .

MANY DISSIDENTS AND FAMILY MEMBERS OF THOSE WHO FLED THE COUNTRY STILL REMAIN IN FLORIDA AND IN MIAMI AREA.

WHAT ARE THEY TELLING YOU ABOUT WHAT LIFE HAS BEEN LIKE ?

AND WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE EARLY THIS YEAR WHEN THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES ORDERED THE RAID AND THE SEIZURE OF NICOLÁS MADURO AND NOW OBVIOUSLY THE FOCUS, THE BLOCKADE ON CUBA ?

>> IT IS GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.

I'M HEARING ALL KINDS OF THINGS FROM EXCITEMENT AND EVEN HOPE, TO REAL WORRY AND A GREAT SENSE OF PREOCCUPATION.

I'M IN TOUCH WITH FAMILY ON THE ISLAND AND FRIENDS WHO ARE STILL ON THE ISLAND AND A LOT OF FAMILY AND FRIENDS WHO LEFT THE ISLAND IN MORE RECENT YEARS.

I THINK IT IS A REAL MIX.

IT SEEMS THE LEAD IN REFERENCE OF NORMALIZATION PERIOD FROM 10 YEARS AGO AND THAT SEEMS LIKE SUCH A LIFETIME AGO.

CUBA IS IN A DIFFERENT PLACE AND THERE ARE HARD CHOICES FACING THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT AND THE CUBAN PEOPLE RIGHT NOW WHETHER THEY LIKE IT OR NOT.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP NOW SAYS THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL QUOTE WORK A DEAL WITH CUBA AS HE CUTS OFF THEIR LIFELINE TO VENEZUELAN OIL PUTTING ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON MEXICO TO DO THE SAME .

WILL THIS COURSE OF PRESSURE WORK ?

AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, WHAT IS THE DEAL WITH WHAT THIS REGIME WILL LOOK LIKE ?

>> THAT IS THE MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION.

TRADITIONALLY, THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT HAS ALWAYS REJECTED THE IDEA THAT THEY WOULD MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THEIR INTERNAL ECONOMIC ORDER IN A KIND OF COERCIVE NEGOTIATION WITH THE UNITED STATES.

THEY HAVE ALWAYS INSISTED THEY ARE WILLING TO NEGOTIATE IN GOOD FAITH WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES BUT ON THE BASE OF EACH WILL RESPECT -- WILL RESPECT.

THE DAYS OF MUTUAL RESPECT WERE OVER.

SEEING THE REVIVAL OF THE MONROE DOCTRINE.

THE DON DONROE DOCTRINE AS IT IS BEING CALLED.

CUBA IS OUTMANNED AND OUTGUNNED.

THE QUESTION IS SORT OF THE RESISTANCE INDEFINITELY.

COMES WITH REALLY GREAT RISKS.

AS TO WHAT A DEAL COULD LOOK LIKE , I'M NOT SURE.

BECAUSE UNLIKE INWARDNESS WITH --IN VENEZUELA TO USE THE COMPARISON, THERE IS NOT SUCH AN OBVIOUS NATURAL RESOURCE BASE THAT THE UNITED STATES WANTS ACCESS TO.

UNLIKE VENEZUELA, AT LEAST , THERE IS NOT SUCH A CLEAR FIGURE AS WE HAVE COME THAT COMES WITHIN THE CURRENT CUBAN GOVERNMENT THAT WOULD BE SEEN AS AN HONEST BROKER OF THE GOVERNMENT AND ALSO TO SORT OF CARRY THE SITUATION FORWARD.

AND I'M NOT SURE THAT FOR CUBAN- AMERICAN ELECTED OFFICIALS, THE SECRETARY OF STATE, THAT THE IDEAL OF DEALING WITH ANY REMNANTS OF THIS GOVERNMENT IN HAVANA IS APPETIZING.

CERTAINLY SOMETHING THEY HAVE OPPOSED FOR A LONG TIME, FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THEIR POLITICAL CAREERS .

IT IS HARD FOR ME TO ENVISION WHAT THE SHAPE OF THE NEGOTIATION MIGHT LOOK LIKE AND WHAT MIGHT SATISFY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S DEMANDS .

>> THIS COMES UNDER THE DIRECTION NOW AND LEADERSHIP OF MARCO RUBIO .

THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE THAT CLEAR .

THE PRESIDENT'S SECRETARY OF STATE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR , HIMSELF IS A CUBAN-AMERICAN.

HIS FAMILY LED FLED CUBA AND MOVED TO THE UNITED STATES.

HE HAS MADE CLEAR THAT THE FOCUS ON THE CUBA REGIME CHANGE THERE, WE NEED DEMOCRACY.

RESTORING DEMOCRACY TO THE ISLAND AND IT HAS BEEN A PRIMARY FOREIGN POLICY FOCUS FOR HIM .

AND WHEN HE WAS ASKED ABOUT WHAT THE DAY AFTER PLAN --OR WHAT THE U. S. PLAN AND GENERAL IS FOR CUBA, AS RECENTLY AS LAST WEEK BUT WHEN HE WAS TESTIFYING BEFORE THE SENATE, HE DID NOT REALLY GIVE CONCRETE ANSWERS.

HERE IS WHAT HE SAID .

>> REGIME CHANGE?

I THINK WE WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE REGIME THERE CHANGE.

IT DOESN'T MEAN WE ARE GOING TO MAKE A CHANGE BUT WE WOULD LOVE TO SEE A CHANGE .

>> DOES THAT SUGGEST YOU THAT THERE IS A PLAN?

IS A REASSURING?

I'M NOT EXPECTING HE WOULD DIEBOLD EVERYTHING TO HIS FORMER COLLEAGUES THERE IN THE SENATE BUT THERE WASN'T MUCH DETAIL .

>> I AGREE.

THERE WASN'T MUCH DETAIL.

IT SEEMS TO ME THE SECRETARY OF STATE, THOSE REMARKS WAS A WAY OF SAYING SOMETHING HE SAID ALL ALONG.

WHERE HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE OPTIONS OPEN.

I THINK ONE THING THAT HAS MADE QUITE CLEAR AND QUITE INTERESTING IS THAT THIS ADMINISTRATION, THE SECRETARY OF STATE, HAVE DETERMINED ARE RECOGNIZED THAT IN ORDER TO PERHAPS GET THE POLITICAL TRANSITION OF VENEZUELA, THEY WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH REMNANTS OF THE GOVERNMENT, SORT OF A TRANSITION PERIOD THEY ARE CALLING IT.

IN CUBA, I WOULD ARGUE SOMETHING SIMILAR WOULD HAVE TO TAKE PLACE.

THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE SOME KIND OF A PACKED.

BUT WHEN THE FOREIGN-POLICY POSITION OF YOUR ENTIRE CAREER HAS BEEN BASED ON THE IDEA THAT ANY NEGOTIATIONS AT ALL ARE SORT OF MORALLY OBJECTIONABLE, IT IS HARD TO SEE WHAT A NEGOTIATION WITH CUBA PARTICULARLY WOULD LOOK LIKE .

>> AND WHAT ABOUT SOMEONE LIKE DELSIE RODRIGUEZ WILL LOOK LIKE.

YOU WERE HAS A TIGHTER STATE SECURITY ANYMORE WEAK CIVIL SOCIETY AND NOT MUCH OF AN OPPOSITION AT ALL .

WE SPENT SO MUCH TIME FOCUSING ON THE WEEKEND OPERATION IN VENEZUELA.

BUT IT IS STILL ALIVE AND KICKING.

WE DON'T HAVE THAT SAME FACTOR IN CUBA.

SO DOES THAT MAKE THE OPTION OF SOME SORT OF DE FACTO OR SOMEONE THAT WOULD ACTUALLY WORK WITH THE UNITED STATES -- DOES NOT ELIMINATE THAT OPTION?

>> I DON'T KNOW IF IT ILLUMINATES THE OPTION SO MUCH AS MAKES IT THE ONLY WAY FORWARD.

YOU ARE RIGHT THAT TO COMPARE --IT IS DIFFICULT TO COMPARE THE STATE OF THE OPPOSITION OF CUBA WITHOUT VENEZUELA.

THERE IS A CUBAN OPPOSITION BOTH ON THE ISLAND .

BUT THE GREAT PART OF THE OPPOSITION HAS BEEN EITHER EXILED OR IMPRISONED.

THEY ARE EVEN LESS OF A POSITION AS A VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION WAS TO FORCE THE TRANSITION THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE.

IT SEEMS TO ME THAT LEAVES THE U. S. GOVERNMENT JUST A COUPLE OF OPTIONS.

EITHER YOU ARE TRYING TO USE PRESSURE TO FORCE A NEGOTIATION WITH THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT INSIDER AND SOME SOURCES SUGGEST THAT U. S. DIPLOMATS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS THEY ARE EXPLORING , OR YOU ARE TRYING TO PRECIPITATE A MENTORING CRISIS WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT THE NEED FOR A MORE FORCEFUL U. S. ACTION.

I THINK THE LATTER IS SOMETHING THE WHITE HOUSE IS SOMETHING -- SOMETHING THEY WOULD WANT TO AVOID.

WHETHER THEY CAN FIND A NEGOTIATING PARTNER INSIDE HAVANA , THAT IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK .

>> THE WHITE HOUSE IS SUPPOSEDLY CONSIDERING A NAVAL BLOCKADE AS WELL WHICH WOULD MEAN DIRECT MILITARY INTERVENTION.

HOW SIGNIFICANT AND HOW RISKY WOULD THAT BE , GIVEN THE 1962 MISSILE CRISIS?

THIS IS SOMETHING CLEARLY THAT DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT WANT TO REPEAT FROM JFK .

>> YES.

I THINK THERE WERE NEWS STORIES LAST WEEK SUGGESTING AN ACTUAL MILITARY NAVAL BLOCKADE WAS UNDER CONSIDERATION TO BLOCK OIL SHIPMENTS.

THEY OPTED FOR I GUESS A LESS DRAMATIC STEP WHICH WAS TO THREATEN TARIFFS.

WHICH OF COURSE WAS STILL A VERY DRAMATIC STEP IN ITS OWN RIGHT.

IT SEEMS THAT ONE OF THE PRIMARY TARGETS OF THE TARIFFS IN MEXICO, WHICH REMAINED THE OIL SUPPLIER IN CUBA, IS BACKING OFF.

MAYBE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAVE GOTTEN WHAT THEY WANTED TO.

I THINK IT IS A QUESTION THAT ONE COUNTRY THAT IS IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE SOME OIL RELIEF FOR CUBA -- AND AGAIN, THAT OIL IS CRITICAL FOR ITS ENERGY SYSTEM, IS RUSSIA.

IN A SCENARIO WHERE YOU HAVE AN ACTUAL NAVAL BLOCKADE AND RUSSIAN STEAMERS , SHIPS HEADING TOWARD HAVANA WITH OIL SHIPMENTS , IT IS TABOO OF 1962.

I DON'T THINK WE ARE THERE YET.

BUT COOLER HEADS HAVE PREVAILED THEN AND HOPEFULLY THEY WILL NOW IF WE FIND OURSELVES IN A SIMILAR SITUATION.

>> YES BUT IF WE WERE TO FOLLOW RUSSIA'S REACTION OR RESPONSE TO VENEZUELA AND AN ALLY THERE DID NOT REALLY COME TO MADURO'S EIGHT AND NOW WE SEE THINGS UNFOLDING WITH REGARDS TO IRAN .

THE TWO ARE NOT NECESSARILY ALLIES.

BUT THEY CLEARLY HAVE COOPERATED AND RUSSIA HAS RELIED A LOT ON IRANIAN DRONES THROUGHOUT ITS WAR ON UKRAINE .

AND SO IT WOULD BE INTERESTING AND QUITE STUNNING IF MOSCOW DID INTERVENE WHEN IT COMES TO CUBA.

WE HAVE ALSO SEEN THE CUBAN MILITARY NOW PERFORM DRILLS.

AND REALLY RATCHET UP ITS OWN RHETORIC AND PROPAGANDA ON TELEVISION .

IS THIS FEAR FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE OF THIS ADMINISTRATION?

OR IS THIS AN ADMINISTRATION AND A REGIME THAT HAS GONE THROUGH PASSED CRISES AND FEELS IT CAN SURVIVE YET ANOTHER DAY ?

>> TO ME, THESE MILITARY MOBILIZATIONS ARE EXERCISES SEEN LARGELY PERFORMATIVE, I THINK IN A CIRCUMSTANCE OR ACTUAL MILITARY CONFRONTATION.

THERE IS NO QUESTION WHICH SIDE WOULD WIN.

THIS IS ABOUT TRYING TO SORT OF RALLY THE IDEA AROUND NATIONAL DEFENSE .

AND AROUND WHAT ARE OBJECTIVELY CHALLENGES TO INTERNATIONAL LAW AS IT IS TYPICALLY UNDERSTOOD.

BUT I THINK THERE IS A SENTIMENT -- WHAT I HOPE IS THERE IS A SENTIMENT IN HAVANA THAT LIKE IT OR NOT THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT.

AND CUTTING A DEAL OF SOME KIND MIGHT BE THE WAY TO AVOID THE CATASTROPHE.

I WOULD NOTE THAT DESPITE THE STRONG RHETORIC COMING FROM HAVANA YESTERDAY, THERE WAS A MUCH COOLER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SUGGESTING THEY ARE WILLING TO NEGOTIATE AND WANT TO COOPERATE WITH UNITED STATES ON ISSUES OF NATIONAL SECURITY.

I DON'T THINK IT IS TOO MUCH TO GET THIS ADMINISTRATION'S ATTENTION YET.

BUT THE SHIFT IN TONE WAS NOTICEABLE AND PERHAPS BRINGS CREDENCE TO SOME OF THE RUMORS CIRCULATING THAT THERE ARE PERHAPS SOME TALKS HAPPENING SOMEWHERE .

>> WHILE I KNOW YOU ARE HEARING FROM SO MANY CUBANS AND CUBAN-AMERICANS AND THOSE THAT ARE ON THE ISLAND RIGHT NOW, I'M COMMENDING THE PRESIDENT AND HIS FOCUS ON CUBA NOW.

IF THEY WERE OR IF YOU WERE TO ADVISE THIS ADMINISTRATION ON ONE THING TO AVOID , THIS TURNING INTO A MASSIVE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS AND BACKFIRING AGAINST THE U. S. , WHAT WOULD THAT BE ?

>> IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUST ADVISE ONE SIDE OF THIS CONFLICT WITHOUT ADVISING THE OTHER.

IT TAKES TWO, TO TANGO.

I'M VERY CONCERNED THAT THE ACTIONS UNITED STATES IS TAKING IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE ON OIL SHIPMENTS FOR EXAMPLE, WILL HAVE GREAT HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES.

YOU MENTORING CONSEQUENCES THAT WILL BE FELT BY CUBA'S PEOPLE , BY AND LARGE MORE THAN ITS GOVERNMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM.

I WOULD URGE ANY U. S. ADMINISTRATION TO TRY TO KEEP A FOCUS ON HE MENTORING ISSUES.

TO TRY TO CREATE WIDE EXCEPTIONS.

TO TRY TO TARGET ANY PRESSURE YOU MIGHT WANT TO EXERT AN HOWEVER --OBJECTION YOU MIGHT FIND WITH INDIVIDUALS IN THE GOVERNMENT AND NOT USE THE CUBAN PEOPLE AS A CANNON FIRE.

ON ANOTHER TOKEN, I WOULD ADVISE THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT THAT PART OF THE REASON THEY ARE SO VULNERABLE TO THIS KIND OF PRESSURE RIGHT NOW IS THAT FOR 30 PLUS YEARS, THE SOVIET UNION HAS DELAYED REPORTS ON THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL MILE , THAT THEY NEED NOT BECAUSE UNITED STATES SAY IT BUT CUBANS SAY IT.

SO SOME WILLINGNESS TO MOVE THE BALL FORWARD INTERNALLY WOULD ALSO HELP THE DYNAMIC WITH WASHINGTON.

>> MICHAEL, WE WILL HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME AND EXPERTISE.

WE APPRECIATE IT.

> >> NOW, COULD DEMOCRATS LEARN FROM THE MAGA MOVEMENT?

THAT IS A QUESTION.

OUR NEXT GUEST IS ASKING IN HIS LATEST PIECE FOR THE NEW YORKER.

IS ARGUE THAT RECENT RIGHT-LEANING MOVEMENT HAVE THRIVED THE LINK LASTING IMPACT LOCAL GOVERNMENT.

ON THE OTHER HAND, HE SAYS DEMOCRATS HAVE FOCUSED ON LARGE FLASHY SHOWS OF FORCE THAT HAVE FAILED TO PRODUCE DURABLE IMPACT.

HE EXPLAINS TO MICHELLE MARTIN WHAT HE THINKS IT WOULD TAKE FOR THE LEFT TO BUILD BROADER, MORE RESILIENT COALITIONS.

>> THANK YOU.

CHARLES, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> YOU ARE WRITING FOR THE NEW YORKER AND AUDIT OFTEN UNPACKS THE WAY SYSTEMS WORK.

HOW DOES THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY WORK?

IN YOUR LATEST PIECE, IT IS TITLED, WHAT MAGA CAN TEACH DEMOCRATS ABOUT ORGANIZING AND INFIGHTING .

WHAT MADE YOU THING ABOUT THAT?

>> I WAS REALLY CURIOUS ABOUT WHY --DEMOCRATS HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN TURNING PEOPLE OUT INTO THE STREETS FOR THE LAST EIGHT YEARS.

IN SOME OF THE LARGEST PROTESTS WE HAVE EVER SEEN.

AND YET DONALD TRUMP'S MOST RECENT VICTORY AND THE FACT THAT MAGA HAS SUCH SUSTAINABLE LIFE AROUND IT , MADE ME CURIOUS OF WHAT WAS GOING ON.

I DID NOT SEE A LOT OF MAGA PROTESTS.

AS I GOT DEEPER INTO THIS, I REALIZED THERE WAS A SCIENCE BEHIND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS.

THERE WAS A SCIENCE BEHIND WHY SOME MOVEMENTS ATTRACT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AND SUSTAIN AND WHY OTHERS ARE FLASH IN A PAN AND DISAPPEAR .

>> IT IS INTERESTINGLY PUT.

YOUR MEMBER WHEN DONALD TRUMP AND KAMALA HARRIS HAD THEIR DEBATE .

KAMALA HARRIS, THE DEMOCRAT, CORRECTLY POINTED OUT THAT TRUMP'S RALLIES WERE NOT THAT SUCCESSFUL.

LIKE THEY WERE HAVING TO FIND SMALLER VENUES .

A LOT OF PEOPLE WOULD LEAVE EARLY.

A LOT OF PEOPLE SORT OF SAW THAT AS A SIGN OF KIND OF WAITING INTEREST .

THAT TURNED OUT NOT TO BE TRUE AT ALL .

AND AS A TOOL OF ANALYSIS COUNTY OPEN THE PIECE BY CONTRASTING THEY ARE WHICH IS THE NATIONALLY FUNDED TOP-DOWN ANTIDRUG PROGRAM THAT SPREAD RAPIDLY THROUGH THE SCHOOLS IN THE 1980S.

YOU CONTRAST THAT WITH MOTHERS AGAINST DRUNK DRIVING, WHICH IS A VOLUNTEER DRIVEN GROUP THAT GREW LOCALLY AND GREW UNEVENLY AFTER A PERSONAL TRAGEDY.

WHAT DID MAKE YOU THINK OF THOSE TWO GROUPS?

>> I THINK THEY ARE PERFECT EXAMPLES OF WHAT ARE KNOWN WITHIN THE ACADEMIC LITERATURE OF SOCIAL MOVEMENTS .

OF MOBILIZING AND ORGANIZING.

DARE WAS GOOD AT MOBILIZING.

THEY COULD GET MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TO SHOW UP FOR RALLIES.

THEY GOT THE PRESIDENT TO DECLARE THE FIRST NATIONAL DARE DONATIONS.

OVER TIME, THE PROGRAM PETERED OUT.

IT WAS NOT EFFECTIVE AT CHANGING PEOPLE'S BEHAVIOR.

AND MORE SO, SCHOOLS ABANDON IT.

HOWEVER, ORGANIZING, PUSHING DOWN LEADERSHIP, TRAINING LOCAL PEOPLE TO BUILD COMMUNITIES AND BECOME LEADERS IN THEIR OWN RIGHT AND IN DOING SO, BUILDING THESE DURABLE COMMUNITIES THAT ENDED UP HAVING PROLONGED IMPACT .

WHEN WE LOOK AT THE CONTEMPORARY POLITICS, WHAT WE SEE IS THE SAME THING.

DEMOCRATS ARE VERY, VERY GOOD AT MOBILIZATION.

THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT TURNING PEOPLE OUT INTO THE STREETS AND HAVING THESE LARGE RALLIES.

WHEN EVERYONE GOES HOME, THEY STOP TALKING TO EACH OTHER.

THEY DON'T MAKE NEW CONNECTIONS AT THE RALLIES.

THEY FEEL THEY HAVE DONE THERE PART.

THEY STOP WORKING HARD.

WHEREAS ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, THEY ARE VERY MUCH UNDER NOTICED .

AND QUIETLY, MAGA HAS SPENT YEARS AND YEARS BUILDING A NETWORK OF SMALL GROUPS THAT WORK ON LOCAL LEVELS THAT HAVE AN POWERED TENS OF THOUSANDS AND MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TO BECOME LEADERS OF THE CONSERVATIVE IDEAS WITHIN THEIR OWN COMMUNITY.

AND IN DOING SO, THEY BUILT A VERY SUSTAINABLE, VERY DURABLE MOVEMENT , THAT WILL FRANKLY OUTLAST DONALD TRUMP.

>> AND ASKING FOR A SOCIAL MOVEMENT TO CREATE REAL CHANGE.

IT HELPS TO BE SKILLED AT BOTH MOBILIZING AND ORGANIZING.

BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT BOTH SKILLS ARE EQUALLY IMPORTANT .

HOW DID YOU KIND OF COME UP WITH THAT IDEA?

>> THERE IS AN ACADEMIC I LOVE NAMED LIZ MCKINNEY AT HARVARD.

THAT SAYS PROTEST IS A TACTIC IN SEARCH OF A STRATEGY.

WHAT SHE MEANS BY THAT IS THAT WHEN WE PROTEST, IT SHOULD BE THE OUTGROWTH OF A COMMUNITY THAT IS BUILT TOGETHER AND IS BECOMING OUTRAGED AND WANTS TO TAKE TO THE STREETS.

THE PROTEST IS NOT THE GOAL OF THE MOVEMENT.

THE PROTEST IS A SYMPTOM THAT YOU HAVE A COMMUNITY COMING TOGETHER AND IS GETTING STRONGER AND STRONGER AND STRONGER.

WHEN YOU PRIORITIZE THE PROTEST, WHEN YOU PUSH PEOPLE INTO THE STREETS WHEN YOU USE TWITTER AND THE INTERNET TO ORGANIZE AND SCALE VERY QUICKLY.

AND THE SIDESTEPPING INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDING WHICH IS REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT TO MAKING A MOVEMENT DURABLE, THAT IS WHEN YOU GET WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW.

PEOPLE FEEL VERY PASSIONATE ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE ABOUT BEING ANTI-TRUMP AND STANDING UP AGAINST I. C. E. AND YET, WE ARE NOT SEEING THE WIDESPREAD CHANGE THOSE PEOPLE HAD HOPED FOR BECAUSE THEY ARE ALSO NOT COME AT THE SAME TIME, ORGANIZING AND BUILDING THOSE COMMUNITIES THAT ALLOW PEOPLE TO WORK DAY IN AND DAY OUT EVERY WEEK WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS TO CREATE CHANGE .

>> ONE OF THE WEIRD IRONIES YOU POINT OUT IN YOUR PIECE IS THAT MANY RIGHT-LEANING GROUPS STUDIED AND ADOPTED STRATEGIES THAT WERE FIRST PERFECTED BY DEMOCRATS .

HOW DID THE RIGHT RING WING GROUPS FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO AND HOW DID DEMOCRATIC OR LEFT-WING GROUPS LOSE IT?

>> ABSOLUTE.

FOR THE TEMPORARY CAN VARY IN -- BARACK OBAMA BASICALLY TURNED CAMPAIGN CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ON ITS HEAD.

INSTEAD OF TELLING VOLUNTEERS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO, WE ARE GOING TO MAKE THEM INTO FRANCHISEES OF THE CAMPAIGN AND SAY, DO WHATEVER YOU THINK IS BEST.

TAKE THE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE YOURSELF AND GO OUT AND EXPERIMENT WITH THINGS.

AS A RESULT, THEY WERE ABLE TO GET OVER 2 MILLION VOLUNTEERS THAT TURNED TO THEIR NEIGHBORS , OVER 25 MILLION TIMES, TO ENCOURAGE THEM TO VOTE FOR OBAMA AND BROUGHT ABOUT ONE OF THE SWEEPING VICTORIES OF DEMOCRATS IN BOTH THE LEGISLATURE AND THE WHITE HOUSE.

BUT AT THAT MOMENT , TWO THINGS HAPPEN.

FIRST OF ALL, WE STARTED TO SEE THE ROOTS OF THE TEA PARTY AND THE TEA PARTY WAS A VERY DECENTRALIZED MOVEMENT THAT ENDED UP BEING VERY SUCCESSFUL.

ALSO, YOU SAW FOLKS LIKE RALPH REID, THE FORMER HEAD OF THE CHRISTIAN COALITION, LOOK AT THE OBAMA ELECTION AND SAY, THEY ARE OUT ORGANIZING US.

WE HAVE TO GET UTTER AT THIS.

SO RALPH REID STARTED THE ORGANIZATION CALLED THE FAITH AND FAMILY COALITION THAT VERY MUCH WAS MODELED ON THE OBAMA PLAYBOOK, BUT FOR THE RIGHT.

IN FACT, ONE OF THE THINGS MANY OF THE GROUPS TO INCLUDING TURNING POINT USA, THE CHARLIE KIRK ORGANIZATION, IS THAT WHEN A LEADER JOINS ARE GROUP, THEY MAKE THEM READ THIS BOOK CALLED "GROUNDBREAKER'S" WHICH IS ALL ABOUT THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN AND VERY GLOWINGLY ABOUT THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN.

THEY SAY, DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THE IDEOLOGY .

JUST SAIL THE IDEAS ABOUT ORGANIZING.

SO THE TEA PARTY AND GROUPS LIKE FAITH AND FREEDOM COALITION AND TURNING POINT USA, WE SAW A PROLONGED EMPHASIS ON CREATING THESE SMALL GROUPS ACROSS THE NATION OF NEIGHBORS COMING TOGETHER IN ORDER TO BE ACTIVE.

NOT JUST IN POLITICS BUT ON ALL TYPES OF THINGS.

FAITH AND FREEDOM HAS EXPANDED BY FOCUSING ON EVANGELICAL CHURCHES AND GUN CLUBS AND HOMESCHOOLING ORGANIZATIONS AND IN DOING SO, WHAT THEY HAVE LEARNED IS THAT WHEN NEIGHBORS HAVE ONE ISSUE THEY CARE ABOUT, LIKE GUNS , THEN IT IS MUCH EASIER TO PERSUADE THEM WHEN THE ELECTION ROLLS AROUND, TO VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE.

BUT THE POINT IS THAT THEY ARE DOING YEAR-ROUND ORGANIZING .

>> THE OTHER POINT YOU MAKE IN THE PIECE IS THAT, MAGA'S STRENGTH COMES IN PART FROM AN TOLERANCE OR INTERNAL DISAGREEMENT.

THIS IS SOMETHING YOU ARE HEARING DEMOCRATS COMPLAIN ABOUT CONSTANTLY.

ESPECIALLY NATIONAL DEMOCRATS.

THIS SORT OF STRINGENCY AROUND OPINION WHICH IS ENFORCED .

>> YES.

A PURITY TEST.

>> YOU LOOK AT THE WOMEN'S MARCH FOR EXAMPLE.

WHICH IS A HUGE MOBILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF TRUMP'S FIRST ELECTION .

A HUGE MOBILIZATION.

FAR OUTSTRIPPED AND NUMBERS.

THE PEOPLE THAT ATTENDED HIS FIRST INAUGURATION IN THE GROUP FELL APART OVER ALL OF THESE SORT OF INTERNAL DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT WHO WAS RIGHT AND IN ISSUES LIKE ISRAEL.

YOU KNOW WHAT IS INTERESTING THOUGH, IS THAT --I'M BASED IN WASHINGTON , SO I DON'T GET THE SENSE THAT DONALD TRUMP TOLERATES A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT ANYTHING.

SO IT IS INTERESTING THAT YOU ARE SAYING THAT THE ACTUAL ORGANIZING STRUCTURE THAT KEEPS HIM ALIVE AND VIABLE POLITICAL, ACTUALLY DOES.

CAN YOU SAY JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT HOW THAT WORKS ON THE GROUND?

>> IT IS IMPORTANT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN MAGA AND DONALD TRUMP.

YOU ARE VERY RIGHT.

DONALD TRUMP BRINGS NO DISSENT WITHIN HIS GROUP.

AND YET, IF YOU LOOK AT THE MAGA MOVEMENT, THEY WELCOME ALMOST EVERYONE AS LONG AS YOU ARE WILLING TO PUT ON THE RED HAT .

AND FOR MANY OF THEM, THEY ACTUALLY OPPOSED TRUMP WHEN HE FIRST ROSE UP IN THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.

AND THEY HAVE NOW COME AROUND TO BEING BOOSTERS OF HIS BECAUSE HE IS THE GUY WINNING.

AND IS GREAT TO JUMP ON HIS COATTAILS.

BUT MAGA IS A VERY DIFFERENT MOVEMENT FROM DONALD TRUMP HIMSELF.

YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT.

MAGA SAYS THAT IF YOU WEAR THE RED HAT, YOU ARE ALLOWED IN.

WE DON'T CARE WHO YOU DATE.

WE DON'T CARE WHO YOU LOVE.

WE DON'T CARE IF YOU ARE PRO- CHOICE OR PRO-LIFE .

WE DON'T CARE IF YOU ARE PRO-TRANS RIGHTS OR NOT .

AS LONG AS HE WEAR THE RED HAT, YOU ARE WELCOME WITHIN OUR CAN'T.

AND IF WE CONTRAST THAT WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE LEFT, WE OFTEN SEE PURITY TEST .

IF YOU WERE A PRO-LIFE DEMOCRAT, YOU WERE EXCLUDED FROM ALMOST EVERY SOCIAL ORGANIZATION THAT SHOULD BE WELCOMING YOU.

IF YOU ARE SOMEONE WHO HAS QUESTIONS ABOUT DEI INITIATIVES OR JANUARY 6th OR SAYS, YOU KNOW, I DON'T LIKE ELON MUSK BUT MAYBE SHAKING UP THE GOVERNMENT, MAYBE THERE IS SOMETHING THERE .

THERE IS NO PLACE FOR YOU TO REALLY PARTICIPATE IN THE DEMOCRATS AND THEY MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE YOU ARE EXCLUDED.

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICAL MOVEMENTS AND POLITICAL PARTIES IS THAT THEY SUCCEED WHEN THEY BECOME BIG TENTS.

AND MAGA IS VERY FOCUSED ON BEING A BIG TENT.

ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS SAY YOU ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR THE GUY AT THE TOP OF THE REPUBLICAN TICKET AND YOU ARE A MEMBER.

DEMOCRATS HAVE --ARE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ON IDEOLOGICAL PURITY AND IT IS TO THE DETRIMENT OF THE PARTY.

>> HOW DID THAT START?

HOW DID IT HAPPEN WITH SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA , WHO LED THIS MOVEMENT THAT WAS VERY INCLUSIVE AND THEN IT BECAME SORT OF OSSIFIED INTO THESE PURITY TESTS?

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?

DO YOU HAVE A SENSE?

>> I THINK TWO THINGS HAPPEN.

FIRST, I THINK THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP WAS SUCH AN OVERWHELMING SHOCK TO THE DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM THAT DEMOCRATS THEN SAID, WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO BE UNIFIED AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.

WE HAVE TO SHOW THERE IS NO DISSENT WITHIN OUR RANKS .

BECAUSE WE FEEL LIKE THAT IS THE WAY WE PROVE THAT WE ARE THE RESISTANCE.

AND THAT IS AN UNDERSTANDABLE INSTINCT.

BUT IT IS EXACTLY THE WRONG THING TO DO.

AND ON TOP OF THAT, IS COVID AND THE RACIAL RECKONING THAT HAPPENED AFTER GEORGE FLOYD.

THERE WAS A LOT OF PEOPLE AND HOW WE LOOKED AT SOCIAL ISSUES .

YOU WILL REMEMBER DURING COVID, THAT IT BECAME -- A SIGN OF FAITH ON THE LEFT THAT YOU SHOULD ABSOLUTELY WEAR A MASK AND THAT WE SHOULD CLOSE THE SCHOOLS .

AND REPUBLICAN STATES THAT DIDN'T ENFORCE MASK WEARING AND DIDN'T CLOSE SCHOOLS WERE ALMOST DEMONIZED.

AND NOW WE KNOW LOOKING BACK THAT IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE.

IT IS A SOPHISTICATED ISSUE.

SOME PEOPLE SHOULD BE WEARING MASKS.

OTHERS DON'T HAVE TO.

MAYBE SOME PLACES WE CLOSE SCHOOLS AND OTHER PLACES WE SHOULDN'T CLOSE COOLS.

BUT THERE WAS THIS EMPHASIS OF UNITY ON THE LEFT THAT BECAME DOGMATIC.

AND WE STILL HAVE NOT GROWN OUT OF THAT.

IN FACT, THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP WON WON BY BEING ANTI- WOKE, IS EVIDENCE THAT HOW MUCH THIS PERCEPTION FOR A NEED FOR IDEOLOGICAL PURITY STILL EXISTS.

AND PEOPLE ARE EITHER ENDORSING IT OR REACTING IN CONTRAST TO IT.

THAT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN TRUE AS YOU POINT OUT.

IT WAS NOT TRUE UNDER OBAMA AND IT WAS NOT TRUE UNDER CLINTON.

WE OVER NUMBER THE SISTER MOVEMENT WHEN CLINTON VERY VISIBLY BROKE WITH SOME OF THE CORE CONSTITUENTS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

THIS USED TO BE SOMETHING WE SAW IS A GOOD SIGN THAT A PARTY IS ALIVE AND BREATHING AND CHANGING .

AND THE DEMOCRATS NEED TO GET BACK TO THAT IF THEY WANT TO SUCCEED .

>> WHAT ABOUT MINNEAPOLIS?

WE HAVE SEEN AN INTENSE KIND OF GRASSROOTS MOBILIZATION .

THESE ARE PEOPLE SAYING, THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE TO ME.

MY NEIGHBORS ARE BEING HARASSED AND PERSECUTED.

I'M NOT TOLERATING THIS.

AND OF COURSE THIS IS AFTER TWO U. S. CITIZENS HAVE BEEN SHOT BY FEDERAL AGENTS UNDER CIRCUMSTANCES THAT THE PEOPLE WHO WITNESS THIS CONSIDER ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE.

AND THAT MANY PEOPLE HAVE NOW SEEN FOR THEMSELVES.

SO WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT?

YOU THINK THIS HAS SOME MEANINGFUL IMPACT OR NOT?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT MINNEAPOLIS IS THAT IT IS NOT ALL GROUPS ON THE LEFT THAT HAVE IGNORED THE WISDOM OF GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING.

IN FACT, IN MINNEAPOLIS, WE SEE A NUMBER OF GROUPS THAT, FOR YEARS NOW, HAVE BEEN ORGANIZING GRASSROOTS AND LOCAL COMMUNITIES.

ONE OF MY FAVORITES IS A GROUP NAMED ISAIAH WHICH BROUGHT TOGETHER CHILDCARE WORKERS, COLLEGE STUDENTS, EAST AFRICAN REFUGEES .

ISLAMIC CENTERS AND CHURCHES.

GROUPS THAT NORMALLY WOULD NEVER COME TOGETHER.

ISAIAH HAS BEEN BRINGING THEM TOGETHER FOR OVER A DECADE AND HAS BEEN HELPING THEM ORGANIZE AMONG THEMSELVES AND SAYING, LOOK, YOU SHARE VALUES TOGETHER.

IF WE WORK TOGETHER, WE BECOME STRONGER.

THOSE ARE THE GROUPS THAT RIGHT NOW ARE NEEDING THIS MOBILIZATION.

THE SOCIAL GROUP CANNOT EXIST WITHOUT ORGANIZING AND MOBILIZING .

THE MOBILIZING IS REALLY IMPORTANT .

BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN MINNEAPOLIS IS THE ORGANIZING HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR A DECADE ON THE LEFT .

SO NOW, WHEN THEY MOBILIZE, IT IS NOT JUST A ONE DAY SHOW UP AND BLOW YOUR WHISTLE PICK IT IS A PROLONGED, CONSISTENT ATTEMPT TO CHANGE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THAT CITY AND IN THIS NATION.

AND IT IS THAT DURABILITY , THOSE UNSUNG HEROES OF LOCAL PEOPLE THAT SHOW UP AND TAKE OUT THEIR PHONES AND BLOW THEIR WHISTLES , DAY AFTER DAY AFTER DAY, BECAUSE THEY SEE THEIR FRIENDS THERE .

THEY SEE THEIR NEIGHBORS THERE.

THAT IS WHAT CREATES REAL CHANGE .

>> DO YOU SEE THIS AS HAVING AN IMPACT MORE BROADLY ON SORT OF ORGANIZING ELSEWHERE ?

AND THINKING IN NEW YORK FOR EXAMPLE, THE ELECTION OF THE CURRENT MAYOR, NO ONE THOUGHT THIS .

THE SMART MONEY WAS NOT ON THIS PERSON AND IT JUST SEEMED VERY MUCH TO BE A MATTER OF PEOPLE ORGANIZING .

ANOTHER QUESTION BECOMES, THE STRATEGY FOR GETTING ELECTED TRANSLATE ELSEWHERE.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

AND POLITICIANS ARE JEALOUS OF NOTHING LIKE SUCCESS IN THIS WORLD.

SO EVERY SINGLE POLITICIAN, PARTICULAR DID DEMOCRAT, WATCHED THE ZOHRAN MAMDANI CAMPAIGN AND SAID, WHY DID THIS GUY WIN?

HOW DO I IMITATE THAT?

THERE WATCHING WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MINNESOTA NOW AND SAYING, THESE ARE THE TYPES OF PEOPLE THAT I WANT TO SHOW UP TO FIGHT FOR ME, TO FIGHT FOR MY CANDIDACY AND TO FIGHT FOR THE POLICIES I CARE ABOUT .

WHAT HAPPENED THERE THAT MADE THIS PLACE SO SPECIAL THAT WE SEE SUCH A PROLONGED TURNOUT?

ABSOLUTELY.

EVERYONE IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT LOCAL ORGANIZING SEEMS TO BE THE KEY TO SUSTAINABLE VICTORY .

AND I THINK WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO CNES MIDTERMS THIS YEAR AS WELL AS THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COMING UP, IS YOU WILL SEE A MUCH GREATER EMPHASIS ON SPENDING MONEY AND ATTENTION ON LOCAL AREAS AND LOCAL LEADERS RATHER THAN NATIONAL CAMPAIGNS.

WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE ANOTHER SITUATION LIKE KAMALA HARRIS WHERE $2 BILLION WAS SPENT TRYING TO ELECT HER WHILE LOCAL SMALLER ORGANIZATIONS BASICALLY COULD NOT GET ANY MONEY.

IN FACT, WE WILL SEE THE REVERSE OF THAT BECAUSE EVERYBODY REALIZES IT IS THE SMALL LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS THAT WORK YEAR AROUND, THOSE OF THE TRUSTED MESSENGERS AND THOSE OF THE PEOPLE THAT CONVINCE PEOPLE TO VOTE.

>> BEFORE I LET YOU GO, GALLUP POLLING FOUND A NEW HIGH IN THE PEOPLE IDENTIFY AS INDEPENDENCE.

IT SAYS 45% OF AMERICANS DIDN'T FIGHT AS POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE.

THAT SUGGESTS FRUSTRATION WITH BOTH PARTIES.

IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN, WHAT IS THE WAY TO SORT OF ORGANIZE , TO ACHIEVE RESULTS FOR A POLITICAL PARTY ?

BECAUSE THAT GENERALLY IS THE WAY POLITICS IS CONDUCTED IN THIS COUNTRY .

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I THINK YOU HAVE TO BE CLEAR ABOUT WHAT APPRAISED VALUES ARE.

AS SOMEONE WHO STUDIES POLITICS AND WATCHES IT, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE VALUES OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ARE RIGHT NOW.

EXCEPT FOR BEING ANTI-TRUMP.

I DON'T KNOW EXACT WHAT THEY BELIEVE IN OR WHAT THEY THINK THE FUTURE SHOULD LOOK LIKE .

AND ON THE RIGHT COME ON THE REPUBLICANS, THERE IS A REAL DISENCHANTMENT BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT THE VALUES OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ARE EXCEPT FOR SAYING, I'M WILLING TO PUT ON THE RED HAT AND I'M WILLING TO VOTE FOR TRUMP.

NEITHER PARTY HAS DONE A REALLY GOOD JOB OF ELUCIDATING WHAT THEIR VALUES ARE AND WHY YOU SHOULD SUPPORT THEM RATHER THAN CHOOSE THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS.

AND THAT IS WHAT THE PRIMARY IS GOING TO BE.

WE ARE GOING TO SEE A BATTLE AMONG MANY, MANY CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT COME OVER WHAT THE VALUES OF THE DEMOCRATS OUGHT TO BE AND WHAT THE VALUES OF THE REPUBLICANS OUGHT TO BE AND HOW WE ELUCIDATE THOSE AND CLEAR THOSE.

ULTIMATELY, PEOPLE NEED SOMETHING TO VOTE FOR.

THEY NEED TO SAY, I'M A DEMOCRAT BECAUSE I BELIEVE IN WHAT THE DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING.

OR I'M A REPUBLICAN BECAUSE I BELIEVE IN THE VALUES OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

AND UNTIL THOSE ARE ELUCIDATED, WE WON'T SEE PEOPLE IDENTIFYING.

AND SAYING, I DON'T IDENTIFY WITH EITHER BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE PARTY IS.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.

> >> HOME AT LAST.

THIS 5-YEAR-OLD LIAM AND HIS FATHER RETURNED TO MINNEAPOLIS AFTER BEING HELD FOR MORE THAN A WEEK AT AN IMMIGRATION FACILITY IN TEXAS, SOME 1300 MILES AWAY FROM WHERE THEY LIVE.

SCENES FROM THEIR DRIVEWAY EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE INCIDENT DREW OUTRAGE WHEN IMAGES OF LIAM AND HIS BLUE BUNNY HAT AND SPIDER-MAN BACKPACK WENT VIRAL.

THE RELEASE IS NOT ENSURING THAT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BE DEPORTED BUT THE FAMILY'S ATTORNEY SAID THEY ARE IN THE U. S. ILLEGALLY AS THEY PURSUE A CLAIM FOR ASYLUM.

DEMOCRATIC LAWMAKER JOAQUIN CASTRO PICKS THEM UP FROM THE DETENTION CENTER AND ESCORTED THEM HOME.

IN A NOTE TO LEAH, HE SAID THIS.

"I HOPE YOU WILL JUDGE AMERICA NOT BY YOUR DAILIES AT THE DETENTION CENTER BUT BY THE MILLIONS OF AMERICANS WHOSE HEARTS YOU HAVE TOUCHED, EVEN AS A YOUNG BOY , YOU HAVE MOVED THE WORLD. "

>> THAT IS IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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