Welcome to the table for the Friday, July 17th, 2026 installment of Market Plus.

Naomi Blohm is back with us.

We talked about your drive.

I did some drive.

I'm about to do some drive.

When we get done here.

Not a lot of bad areas around, so Eric Hunt was in the weather piece.

He'll be next Tuesday's MtoM meteorologist over at Nebraska.

He put together a graphic where the main corn and soybean production areas are at.

You have to look really hard to see drought in any of those major production areas.

Is that how you read those maps, too?

>> That is my interpretation, and that's where I'm a little cautious that when the satellite imagery comes out, it maybe doesn't at this time have a reason to show why yield would be less than 180 nationwide.

I don't think we can say with any certainty it's going to be better than where it was last year or anything like that.

But I think it's a pretty darn good crop out there.

And the green is so lush and green.

It's it's almost like a blue green.

It's it's it's amazing.

It's just gorgeous.

And, you know, coming across Iowa soybean fields and all of the corn just looked amazing.

>> Well, the joke is I always go out of order.

Let's if we could cue up Dan in Boston for a minute, given what you just said about how good it is, and you mentioned August, and let's see if that's what the answer is to this.

When do you make the call of a bumper crop?

Is it July, August or September?

>> I think it is August.

That's when we know for sure.

Like, I think in the past 5 or 6 years, when we get satellite imagery, we kind of get through pollination.

August is when we are dealt with how potentially big the crop could be.

And there's been a couple times in recent history, of course, we get that number.

It makes prices sink lower.

The USDA confirms it on August wasde, and that helps to get us our harvest low, because then all of the big news is priced into the market.

So what I'm just very curious to see though, is it where in the 180 area might it be?

Now again, this is based on client conversations.

Who have said it is really good for the most part everywhere.

And they've had just enough timely rains.

Now, if we get into the latter part of July and these rains don't materialize, that could be something different.

But for the most part, I think it's going to be a good crop.

>> But look at the last couple of years, we were almost similar situation.

Lots of crop was in good condition until July and then August and rain stopped.

But we got through pollination fine.

We're getting through pollination right now.

Heat stress.

But again, we just don't know.

So we do need to prepare though, right.

That this yield could go higher.

>> It could.

Where's Arlen.

Yeah.

But we're really waiting for the satellite imagery.

That's that's that's the bottom line here for right now.

That's what the traders are waiting for.

That's what we're going to go off of.

And truly if the global perception is that the United States is going to come in and save the day, then what that means is that even though we have the separate thing of tighter global carry out, the Americans are going to come in and save the day and get us through until we know what South America is going to have come December, January.

>> Which could be on the other side of this El Nino, which creates challenges for their production schedule, which is also part of the the IFS that you mentioned in the main program.

>> Yeah.

And so and that's the thing where, you know, we are now getting ourselves, I think, set up for a significant price low.

I think we are making it happen right now.

And so whatever, if we can get a pullback over the next couple of weeks and into August, then I think that is going to be our harvest low and it will be significant.

And we will then be trading every single weather forecast between, you know, for us and for harvest and what's happening with South America over the winter.

And it's going to be so crucial then that Brazil has an amazing crop in Argentina.

And then we also have to see what China is going to have.

Of course, China, they grow a quarter of the world's corn.

All of the corn they grow, they use.

So we need to understand how their crop is faring as well.

So we'll be seeing if China in the coming weeks, are they going to buy not just beans.

Are they going to start to branch into other American products?

And that'll be a telltale sign of, I think, what they feel that their corn crop is or isn't.

>> Because could you argue that China has actually made this story a little bit happen already on corn, because they had already bought some corn and taken away from that stocks number.

>> I think.

Yeah, that's something you could put into that.

>> All right.

I'm going to put you on the spot with William in Ontario.

Two questions from Ontario coming.

So thank you.

We're big in Ontario.

My soft read is about to come off.

Should I hold it or sell it >> So this kind of goes back into what we were talking on the on the program where this recent price bump, because of the Black Sea region, in my opinion, this has been a gift in the short term here, it's gotten prices back up to the highest from earlier in the year.

We know that the Black Sea has the crop.

It's just can they get it exported to where it needs to be exported in time?

But again, this is something where we are setting ourselves up for, I think, a significant run once the calendar year of 2027 gets closer, where now we have global ending stocks of wheat maybe starting to trend lower.

We have the Australian crop now just announced today, maybe starting to get a little bit smaller.

We know the U.S.

Crop was smaller.

We know the European crop is smaller.

And for wheat, it's always got to be 2 or 3 major growing regions of the world that have to have issues in order for the grain markets to rally.

So now it's starting to come to fruition and then taken to that also India, we have to wait and see how their crop is going to be.

And then if they by chance have something bad happen with their crop because of El Nino, now we really have a weather market that we can play in 2027.

>> Okay, so there's the wheat story.

Let's go Eric, in Minnesota, because that continues the old crop story.

Is it time to sell the last old crop corn, beans, or is there a chance for prices to improve before harvest?

>> Okay, so on the corn side, I think that this has been a great opportunity.

September corn getting up to 450 on the daily charts.

That's a significant resistance area for old crop corn to go higher.

From here you need three things to happen.

It's got to be something bad in the Middle East, bad in the Black Sea, and a significant shift in the weather in the United States.

Back to hot and dry.

That was, in my opinion right now, the only thing that could make old crop corn go a lot higher.

And there still is a lot of corn that has to come to town.

Lord have mercy.

There's a lot of corn that has to come to town.

And bass, this is something that we have to monitor as well.

So I think that if you've got corn, this might be your last chance.

If you know, you got to get rid of it, you got to move it right.

Beans though, you know, with the crushed demand being so strong and this is just that time of year where there start to be a little bit low on product.

The old crop beans, you might have a window where your basis, your local cash market gives you a bigger opportunity than what maybe the board price would do.

But then also that cautionary tale of once we get into August, then some of those plants shut down for two weeks for maintenance, and that nice cash rally goes away pretty quickly.

So I think in summary, I would say sell it.

>> Let's talk a little new then Marion, Kentucky, how realistic is 1250 fall delivery beans and dale in Iowa?

How realistic is a chance of $6 corn?

You could say that for fall delivery as well.

>> For soybeans.

Kentucky, they'll have a nice basis.

Harvest October, I would say.

I would say this if the bean market has a pullback lower like next week, just a simple correction, lower whatever August low we have, I think is going to be significant.

And part of the answer depends on how much China actually comes in and buys sooner than later, to where then you have a just a quick competition to get the beans down the river, down to the Gulf or out the PNW.

Right.

So the bean story there, there may be some potential there because we're at $12 right now, so we're not too far away.

Now, the $6 corn thing, I'm going to say, I think it's a possibility for 2027.

In the spring for corn prices to have $6 any time in the next few months.

Again, it goes back to the three things that have to happen bad things in the Middle East.

You need crude oil to have a reason to get back into $100 plus a barrel.

It would have to be something horrible in in the in the Black Sea region, and you'd need to have a weather forecast in the United States that just turns the water off from now until the end of August, to really make the market have a reason to think that that corn yield is going to be less than 180.

So again, because the global situation is shifting, I am friendly for 2027, but we might have to wade through the weeds here in the short term.

>> Okay.

27 all right, Phil, in Ontario, our second question, our Ontario stalwart, it's hot and smoky with December corn at 462.

Where does it go from here with the European crop burning up the Russia grain transport being compromised?

Are further price gains due to weather here likely, or is it a long slide into harvest time?

I know you've answered this a couple of times.

This question framing change your answer at all?

>> No it doesn't.

So I'm still of the opinion, you know, that this that past performance is not indicative of future results.

But the seasonals for corn and soybeans and Chicago wheat and Kansas wheat starting July 19th, five and 15 year patterns suggest a two week pullback for prices lower, there were only three out of 20 years where December corn rallied throughout the month of July, and that was 2011 and 2012.

And I think even it was either 2019 or 2020, it rallied into the end of July.

But then all of the gains that it had in July, it lost in August.

So we'll see.

We'll see what the funds want to do.

We'll see what Mother Nature has to say and how all of our geopolitical friends want to make things happen or not happen.

This weekend.

>> Past statements are not indicative of the future, but earlier this year, the last time you were here, you said a very similar thing and it has held to be true at this point.

I'm just saying I'm listening very closely to what you said.

Rewind it again, over and over again.

Okay.

We're going to do one more question, Dan, in Nebraska, this one is about the dairy industry, but it also has a look to the livestock industry as a whole, with beef prices at record levels, many dairy producers are breeding more cows to beef genetics instead of raising replacement dairy heifers.

How significant is this trend and what does it mean for future milk supplies?

Beef supplies and prices?

>> And I love this question.

And the flat out answer is I'm not sure.

So it has been definitely a new trend in the dairy market, but that's been what's helping some of the dairies stay afloat.

With milk prices not being overly attractive.

So I'm not I'm not sure how it plays out.

I'm really not.

I'm curious as much as as he is too.

So we shall see.

But right now, again, the theme in the dairy complex is that in general, there are more cows milking.

Right now.

We have amazing production and that big production is what is keeping the market from having any sort of significant rally in the short term.

Thankfully, the demand in general has been strong, but I'm I'm not sure what that's going to be doing for the future of the dairy complex.

>> Well, sorry, this one's way out of left field is the age of the production herd a concern that we have to think about here, given there's been a lot of replacement heifers sold somewhere else and not held back on the barn.

I mean, the replacement side of this story could be bullish long term.

>> Yeah, I hadn't thought about that that but that's that is not inaccurate.

>> And that's that's just kind of going a part of Dan's question.

>> Yeah I think so.

I think that'll be the the big question mark where the next time I'm on the show in October, I'll hopefully have a better answer.

>> There you go.

I wasn't trying to blindside you with anything, but it was just it kind of came out of what you said.

I thought I should ask it.

>> Yeah, no, we'll find out.

I'm on it.

I'll be ready for October.

>> Very good.

Naomi Blohm, everybody.

We'll see you soon.

Thank you very much for all your time.

Thank you.

Naomi Blohm next week we're going to look at the challenge facing the livestock industry in these times of prices.

They've been high.

We'll see how they look next week.

When we ask Don Rose, thanks for joining us.

Have a great week.